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Trump, Sanders. Clinton.- UB Prof. Jacob Neiheisel

Jun 5, 2016|

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Jacob nine hazel is here he's an associate professor of political science. At the state university new York at buffalo UB thanks for stopping by glad to have an. And actually assistant professor thanks for the promotion assistant pro at best. So you you're checking a little bit smaller maybe just finally gave you okay. I wanna I wanna start looking at a poll just came out this morning just literally minutes ago. We are up to the minute here. California voters is from CBS California voters divide on trump protest and there are also apparently divided on Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Here's what it says headed into the last big primary day California's democratic contest. Looks close Hillary Clinton up only two points on Bernie Sanders 49 to 47 right now. New Jersey shows Clinton a solid lead 6134. There and that primary and basically what they have poll goes on say is that Tuesday night it sets up up. A position where Hillary Clinton is positioned to pick up enough delegates to get the majority she needs for nomination. You're obviously I would guess not surprised by this no not at all it it's been it for a inevitable march to this position and the argument. That the Sanders campus and making is you know that they're still pathway to the nomination. And that said becoming. Increasingly. A bleak position for them and it has been for quite some time the writing on the wall that that to. To hold up that position now I think just seems and like there they're grasping at straws but he does have may be a chance to. Win the super delegates if he does really well in California the scenario that his campus putting out there is hey. I have enough momentum here I'm enough of a qualified guy. That you super delegates should jump to my side. Because after all polls are saying I'm a better candidate to beat down that's absolutely correct but that's an odd position for Sanders to be and he's you know. Populist candidate on the left if you will he's positioned himself as a voice of the people. And to be reporting up to party elites and sort of asking them to to make the switch for him. I think that's just doesn't seem to be a position that he can credibly take okay so let's assume Tuesday she wins New Jersey. Let's assume that even if he wins California on Tuesday. The delegates but there's probably going to be close to maybe 155 year went right. So she comes out of Tuesday. As the presumptive number nominee this poll also talked a little bit about that against CBS news. Many of Sanders California backers aren't giving up. 57%. Of them say. The chance to influence the party is their main reason for voting for Sanders even if they don't think he gets the nomination so Tuesday comes. She's got the delegates for the nomination then watch how does he. Influence. Things going on from there a degree question anyway I can't see him being put on a ticket and I can't see him being a big presence at the nominating convention. But it would have to be you know getting news time getting air time to push an issue agenda which I think he and truthfully. Might have been what he began with her he probably thought that he could maybe move the agenda to left slightly. He's probably going to have to revert back to a position of being a voice out there for his issues do they not put him on the roster and he asked to speak to mention you're absolutely but I don't see him being a prominent place that his supporters. Would perhaps like him today. What about the platform is that even a meaningful thing. The bigger question you know it's symbolic. Two particularly party insiders it's symbolic people who are really paying attention. I don't know that too many average voters can actually go find you the platform without some significant amount of Google and and so I don't know how much that actually plays a role and you know mobilization and getting voters out and all the things are going to be necessary in the ramp up to a general election fight. But this particular year with a huge body of Sanders voters there. Whining is you just said to sort of change the agenda. Does the platform become maybe morning. That's possibly true this year like with so many things this year where we're throwing out some of the traditional rule book this may be one place where. The past is maybe not telling us as much as we'd like about this campaign going forward and so. I think you have to Lleyton at a rate in that regard that this may be a time if we're going to see any time where those kinds of things matter. That they're trying to to change that platform and make it a meaningful part of the the conversation I ask you more about platform and second it has implications on the Republican side with trump as well. But to you mentioned you don't see Bernie Sanders on the ticket. I really don't see and Timmy it would be a nice unifying gesture but I think. And moving forward I think Hillary is more concerned about moving swing states than she is. Keeping folks who are in the Sanders camp on board mean the traditional wisdom again with the two getting caveat being that we've thrown out so much of that rule book this year. The wisdom has been that that partisans come home there was a stock in 2008 of Hillary supporters. Jumping ship then you know if not moving to the other side certainly staying home on Election Day. We didn't end up seeing that happen most former Hillary voters in the primaries became Barack Obama supporters in the general election. What happens that those those differences between the parties become very stark. During the general election campaign and people who may have made comments to the effect that they are going to bolt the party. Come back home I don't know that necessarily going to be the case this time. It's a bit of a numbers game if she can sort of make enough inroads among moderates that she doesn't need to pick up all of the Bernie Sanders contingent. Maybe she'll make that that decision and move toward somebody who can helper. Wind electoral votes on Election Day in light of that what does she do you regarding a vice president. The great question the great she pick up somebody from Ohio Sherrod Brown has been in the mix the other Specter here and not sure how much her campaign cares about this. Is the fact that you know some of these senators. Once they are on a presidential ticket than their seat is going to be. Open some of those states are going to be appointment states where the governor is able to fill that seat. With an appointment to the senate. Many of those governors are going to be Republicans so I'm not sure if the party would like her to play something like that. If they care about the White House whoever she better be looking for battleground state what is the current governor of Massachusetts he's Republicans need. Patrick now. Now I've got Patrick okay yup right. Met the reason I ask is that there's been obvious talk of Elizabeth Warren right. An all female ticket certainly really liberal ticket. But but if this is a year where as you say we've tossed out the rule book talking about that. I think Warren would be. An interesting choice for her I don't know if she brings a lot to the table that you would need right coming from and East Coast state. Probably not gonna pick up a lot of voters there or on decider on them hustling side. That being said Warren has been acting for quite some time now like she's a surrogate for the campaign anyway and so she's positioning yourself. Quite well to be in in the conversation at least for the VP pick and would that be inappropriate bone to throat of the Sanders camp it certainly might be again it's a numbers game if she calculates are for internal polling calculates that. She needs that Sanders contingent in order to to keep the party together. I'm moving portrait the part of the the vote that the party counts owner of the candidates can count on. If she needs that rather than more than she needs suing voters who were you know may be put off by Donald Trump this time around. On that I think that's a viable option for her couple people also mentioned. Hud secretary Julian Castro. Or even labor secretary Tom Perez who has Western New York roots what are your thoughts there and Hispanic vote. You know it looking hats the exit polls that we've seen from the Bernie Sanders contest. I don't see her really hurting in that arena would be a nice symbolic nod Hispanics are now with trump therefore there with Hillary their fortune doesn't need them brought a mid day it looks right now lake there a bit of captured constituency and in there they're not a credible threats to move over to the other party particularly with the kinds of things that compass and saying. With regard to him build a wall but we've all heard and so I don't think that that's going to be. An area where she's particularly worried if she's just playing the the pure politics of it running the numbers. As a symbolic gesture though. You know someone picks up from with the Latina heritage on the ticket against somebody who wants to build a wall that's a very powerful symbolic gesture. And might fire the democratic base 8030930s. Are numbered Jake. Guy has a list here political science professor UB. And if you'd like to join the conversation we'll be going to the phone calls in just a quick second here I did want to ask more about trump for you you talked about how the partisans come home. Right how ultimately those who supported people other than Barack Obama. After the primaries supported Barack Obama wrecked. There has been talk put out by the trump camp and unless out there. That he has an opportunity to really grab some disaffected. Manufacturing. Class voters disaffected union voters people that would traditionally vote Democrat. And might perhaps because of his his stance on the economy because of his stance on trade. Jump the fence Democrats voting for trump is that something you see happen I think. We'll see some of that again whether it's going to be enough to offset losses among establishment Republicans who just can't bring themselves to vote for a trump like character. You know that that's that's up in the air that I have seen polling including from my own that I've done since back in March. Looking at sort of second choice preference among Sanders voters and in some of them are picking up trumpet and that second position not a significant number of them. But certainly enough that it's in the conversation this year tell more about that you've pulled Sanders voters about what they would do after. This is a nationwide poll we did over the Internet myself and a couple colleagues different universities. And we we asked about you know basically bolting the party are bolting after. Depending on who the nominee is and so. I can't remember the numbers off to my head and bring the top talents that I do you remember. Small under twenty percentage proportion of Sanders voters who were saying that they'd they'd. Prefer trump to a Hillary and did with the rest from pretty much with the rest are pretty much with Hillary if you on the on the fence sitting home. All right now I wanna talk about platform we mentioned that earlier Q. There has been talk that once it reaches the Republican Convention. That this year particularly the platform fight might be more significant on the Republican side. Because it would give cover. To the rest of the down ballot. Candidates that are afraid of trying. The people in the house of the senate who aren't necessarily trump supporters and would want some sort of document like a platform and that they could hole up there and wave and say. Yes but look this is what the Republican Party stands for. I more in line with the platform not that guy that you might not like that happen do you see that platform being more important on the Republican side. Or is it you write it got Google this thing you've got to look for people don't necessarily think well that's what the Republican Party stands for rate no I do. Again and a year or thrown out so much the rule book I think you're right that there's argument made that. This year of all year just going to matter for senate candidates Canadian a sticky position come November. To say look this is actually what we mean these are principles and values that we long upheld. And we're going to be you know. Fighting for this and then the senate for Yale and so I think there's a real reason to worry Mitch McConnell on TV this morning and he didn't seem terribly worried at least outwardly. But it we do talk about coattails and that's been something we've talked enough for a long time we've noticed that there presidential coattails effect. Now since the late 1970s. Through the ninety's. I think it's particularly true today in such a polarized environment where it's very difficult it can be very difficult for another national candidate. Q distanced themselves from whoever's at the top of the ticket because the parties are divided and they're seen as being part of all alike rightly or wrongly. And that kind of shortcuts for voters is going to be informative as they go to the polls devil's advocate here on either side of the equation. Is party unity really in issue bottom line. I can't see a lot of Republicans voting for Hillary bottom line I can't see a lot of Democrats voting for trump when it comes right down to it don't they unified just because. The other guy is and their guy right into all these polls what they're ignoring is that. We haven't seen a general election campaign yet and with the information environment surrounding his election campaign where the differences between the candidates are so stark. What seemed like protest vote earlier where you sat on the on the net throw at him with trump for Micah Sanders doesn't get elected. That's going to seem increasingly untenable as you move into the general election and so where the the issue is going to be in terms of party unity is people who stay home. And so much of general elections or turn up game. And if they can't get the base mobilized if they can't eat into that proportion of the independent vote that swing vote. They're gonna have a really hard time you know winning the election but that's where I've heard the argument that trump energizes people Hillary not so much. Right so he has this strange ability to energize folks who have not been involved in the campaign before Orrin involved in politics before. Whether or not that's enough to offset losses among Republicans who are going to stay home. That's that's an open question yeah he certainly does have more of an ability to get newcomers into the process than we've seen Hillary because. In large partner issue positions are and something of a continuation of last administration 8030930 years are numbered Jacob and I Keisel is here from both sides deferment. At UB. Before this segment started we were listening to a little bit of the discussion about. Donald Trump and the media earlier this week I think it was Thursday this past week he basically came out and had a news conference where it got kind of contentious. When I raise millions of dollars have people say like this sleazy guy right over here from ABC he's a slaves. Let's get to the phones out John and register that's topic and you wanted to bring up hi welcome to the air. They gave AJ will be the I played trump who is gonna resonate with a lot of independents like myself. Our. His stance in the media. The media is. For the most part and also eight. 80% of the media is last. Dave Davis in the Davis ordered a good media guys. I gotta say that but up. Crop is attacking the media is and that's exactly what the media reports. A lot of times it's what they don't report. President Obama would never got elected if he was vetted properly by the media they cover up and Hillary Clinton. She's got so what NATO read a book right now. Clinton's war on women and it's unbelievable. A lot without their trumpet bring it out and he did the media and tech straw which say well. He's gonna attack back and he got a call him well personally. And professionally and I think that's going to be a big factor in the election what he saw us. Other trick question we've seen a movement toward increasingly polarized media environment where it's it's very easy for you to define conservative news if you want it's very easy for unified liberal news if you want it. And for the most part you know we have these. He's standing positions on what we believe the media to be and so a lot of trump strategy going forward and one he's benefited from greatly is that. Know all the coverage she's been getting. Even though it objectively has been bad for him right we've seen media outlets going after him. He can just turn that around say look at that that biased media coverage and I'm getting and because the media is a two person. Seen as a partisan entity states he can turn that in into his favor. And so this is one of the reasons why we've seen so much media coverage of trouble this free media he's been getting he's been getting tremendous amount of coverage. On doing nothing but helping him even though we went back through we looked at the content of that media coverage. My guess is is to say that that the balance of the coverage going to be against trump. But he's been able to turn that fish favour and say look that's that's really just the little liberal media establishment going after and then. And whether he's correct on that is it's up to you know objective analysis but. He's able to spend that narrative to his favor what about the argument that's. I'm in the media have made I think it was Campbell Brown had an essay in Politico dot com. That the media has not done their job. And that they have really given trump in terms of volume may be that quality may be not content but in terms of volume. They have given this man huge amount of comfort or actually I believe he started the most in free media that we've ever seen in in in recent. I'm since we've been tracking those kinds of numbers and so. I get a they think there's an argument and we see mostly people on the left making this argument is that. Did the media has abdicated its responsibility trump has been great for ratings he's great to bring up and down to in any any given radio or television program. But now there's been a moment of you know looking back and think he's the presumptive nominee and saying. Was there something that the media could have done to stop this before hand rather than just. Letting him have a platform because he's great for ratings are great for Turkey to recognize those with us from UB their political science department. If you're on hold stay with us we will get you after the break we will get you after the newscast. 8030930s. Number more to come after this it's hard line on news radio 930 WB yen 8030930s. Number. We are talking about the presidential race much more to get to involving Donald Trump to. Can't believe the first half hour of this this segment is almost gone and we didn't even touch on what happened in San Jose early in the week. Let's do that now briefly before we get the news Jacob nine Keisel is here from the university of buffalo. Then we're not only I think we can call them rise but there where there were violent protests with trump. Protesters outside the arena attacking trump supporters this week what that went on there a theory question this is not the this is not what democracy should look lakers in the field union chance this is what democracy looks like this is not what democracy should look like. I in the sense that you know rightfully or wrongfully trumpets a you know major party candidate now and so each his supporters deserve some respect in this process. And keep lay the blame on the fact that and his rhetoric has been incendiary. But that's no excuse for either side that the ball to this all right and the other side of the break we'll ask whether or not trump or even the the protesters. Deserve to did to disavow violence should go that route we'll take your calls too more comments hardline an Israeli or 930 WB he had. I've got news radio 9:30. And this morning at this stage depot. Jacob and I Keisel is here from UB he's in their political science department. We are talking obviously about the presidential race Hillary Sanders or Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders. More caffeine this morning man. Donald Trump of course is well 8030930. Is the number before the break we touched on them than I do wanna pick up the threats of right now before we go to the phones. San Jose earlier this week. You had. Trump anti trump protesters getting physical with trump supporters. And the last time there was violence trump rallies a lot of trampled supporters were saying. That that that he needed to come out the last front tracks were saying needed to come out and just about violence. Is there the need for someone on the other side now the protesters to disavow violence or is this something that can't in any way related trumps feet. I think we we have seen. A bit of disavow Wright we've seen a number of democratic surrogate come out and say you know this is not what's supposed to happen but on the flip side of that they've also laid a fair amount of the blame. Trump and saying his rhetoric is causing this I think. There'd be a much more credible kind of commitment on their side if they'd stopped at that first statement. The wave we perhaps want them to death and so it does look like political gamesmanship now once they had that second caveat well his rhetoric is driving people of this. And so I think that money either side be much more effective federal and just came out said OK that's enough folks. This is not what this process supposed to do cameo to get along but at the Rodney King right. 8030930. Jim in north town wanted to Hiram Rhodes in that view is that. Yup that's being back here here's what the fronts purse strings at the B as of tomorrow morning. At them make a speech. Talk to the new. Fox and anywhere to get out and things that I am instructing my followers. It's of tomorrow or anybody choked up with the Mexican flag take it away. If they rip it whatever sport that Perry who will epic. The flag or wait for them I won't let Hillary any Mexican flag that American oil that is sleep clinic at the United States of America. And yet. Apology it pretty well and it worked well law. I looked out my supporters to report that. Furthermore. I hiring and helping to air security. And an ad I see you're you're lying here on the call screener board in front of me. You say that these attacks that that would be good strategy because these attacks and up mobilizing. The base they actually help him use it. You know I can mean a couple armed. Federal you're familiar there would hear serial paired city it's not quite sure okay very area right there were figured noticed. Since our last June I have never put beaten me many. People driving down your cereal with the American flag of their trucks. And pickup trucks and armored car but that is going aren't we if people read a lot I mean literally. Lack Auburn's and go blow for blow these people all we need is the green light from. The trumps if I think it's eight our country back here we have been shot blocker or our partnership had. Remember what what about the break with that. Three of liberty must be watered with a lot of higher than eight. All right Pervez and I has always say that these attacks help the base. Think that's probably right did they'd they'd do mobilize the base and do more for properly they polarized the electorate right so. If here on the democratic side you going to see these in your of course gonna become more entrenched in your side. You're on the Republican side you're going to see these attacks and you're going to become entrenched in your side and so. Did you are going to mobilize the basic and mobilize on both sides. I don't know that necessarily the way we wanna run things though. Bob in buffalo Europe now hi. I you know I do believe the media don't report you know behavior or very quick examples. How many people realize it curse of pre integrating a longer taught in our educational system that they get one year are under thirteen years. Learning how to right curse of another reader I saw the outlook in the league east you know they're debuting this one being seventeen trying to figure out with a look at. Kate and personal and they wanted to know like nobody's sending letters from mail this goes back to the Bush Administration. Hours. All totaled ninety. The culprit local a local woman show workers outweighed by the write on them and it was strange triggering. Really peeping Tom I mean this was where we're going its society. Climate change being great distrust of the politically that was an interest years ago that there were trees should stop an hour. In a in article and fifteen feet overreached and it couldn't get a mile and it is and and helicopters rescued the sanctions during the summertime. Or are obviously well listing. Bill Clinton. Didn't he of the university. And a charge of problems complaining about there's a need a number of more rational software lawyers. Up I have to good touch on the premise you raised at the beginning. You say the media hasn't really told us any of this and yet I think you know it and I know it tie it back to the media for me if you can. While the first I really weren't about to reading and writing. If you don't. In not being trotted what was shall run another radio station being discussed by an outraged a parent I I had no idea that reached up teaching crucial reading and writing in school. When I started question and some of the kids holders nineteen years of age. I have to tree submit to No Child Left Behind than George Bush I mean I had no light here we were no longer teaching. Crucial reading greatly. An and you broader point there is that we've gotten away from traditional. Ways of doing things. Traditional ways of doing things were worse immediate talking about title and I know what it was truly meant to be. That the culprit warm and local level as well waged by the right of a man and a public or I mean just finished dosage. This is really ridiculous and you work a bill of rights politician should she have the right so upgrade machines. And good to be secured her body in a public shortly yet the president and the secular. Ordering it back to your point about the the media I'm sorry that. And in Europe their but the idea that the media has ever been good at this is something of a meant to mean that the media is episodic in the sense that they they go from Atlanta that and Norse to really learn these broader themes we we have to and go to college not necessarily you know. And an interest in on my part has to say go to college be you have to fit it make it more in depth study these kinds of things immediate jobs to bring you things. As that happens sort of rapid fire succession. That's never been more true than it is today with 24 hour news cycle. And so they've they've really never done that well. And and you're arguing that it sounds like that we don't go and a that we go with what's in front of us now. Absolutely and you know the bitten twice for our news cycles only exacerbated that kind of reporting style but. We see you look back and say there some golden age of media day they've never really taken on these long term kinds of trends and really expose them. Some investigative reporting perhaps has done that at some point in time but the budget just isn't there for that kind of in depth study of a particular topic. And professor Jacob nine Keisel is here from UB their political science department. One more before we take a break if you're on hold stay there we will get you 8030930s. Are numbered Tom and Hamburg Europe's high. I tell you I believe this election is going to be a referendum on now Obama I don't think that. I think is countries wearied. I think they're totally disappointed. And I think. Verdict is in the debate over. Believe that. Obama has proved to be horrible president terrible president if you look at the economic numbers that just came out. And if you look at their past pres Democrat president that you can hide that YouTube. Jimmy Carter was asked. Two main one area in the world that get better relations with. And he said I can't do that he goes it that he admitted apartment that is terrible terrible job and formulations. I'm a businessman. I deal with businesses I deal with corporate leaders and out tea I own a home here I go home in Florida I just drove up. I don't look through out Florida in Georgia and South Carolina and Virginia and West Virginia and Pennsylvania. And what I see is bumper stickers and signs here and there is 80% from 20% Clinton. I can't believe that Clinton could be elected and no one has mentioned the elephant in the room which is should Jim called me. And I'm surprised you tell us haven't touched on that and the FBI investigation is that what you were right we would be in jail right now. OK let's let's get to right now I think I read somewhere this week. Someone says that if you were not for the media spectacle that trump has become. That everything would be about the emails and if Hillary Clinton right now we're trying to be confirmed for secretary of state. She probably wouldn't get it because there is this ongoing investigation because FBI director James comedy is looking into things. Do you think that that issue is underplayed do you think it's overplayed how does that play out. And it's a great question that the I think the the bigger question is. If more attention were brought to a would it matter in the sense that we can we have such a polarized electoral environment where. You're going to have Democrats too are called motivated reasoning it's this process we go through to convince ourselves that. Were writes no matter what can no matter what information we we received and so Democrat looking at that information thing. Well it's released which content Republican hasn't sensed that nothing is being done about it. And oh yeah I don't think I'm crawling out too far on a limb to say if she was up confirmation right now the secretary of state. This issue would be huge and yet during the presidential campaign you're exactly right. Democrats are saying not an issue Republicans are saying look at them closely I think you're actually right that being up for a cabinet position. It's very different than than being up four. The general electorate for the cabinet position you have a president two's. There and trying to mimic the fewest waves possible and I anyone who has any kind of controversial record whether. In it's the email scandal or something of that nature is really not going to receive a great deal to consideration. On the general election circuit though. All you need to 50% plus one that's if you can condense that proportion the electorate of the that turns out. This is the sideshow doesn't matter. The nickel hmm. I know that we we venture into the realm of guesswork here but how does this play out what happens does the FBI indict or does the Obama administration. Quash any charges against her what you see happening. Oh goodness and I know that's guess and terribly bad at prognostication but I are really don't see this going anywhere I'm actually surprised that the and State Department report was as damaging as it as being reported that haven't actually read it I've only read sort of safe is online at WB and dot com I hope that if there is much I gotta get the plugin now but it's there but it's I I was kind of surprised that day Democrats. Led. Cabinet agency. On this willing to to say that much of course you know that the caveat there's that they also excoriated past secretaries of state for their practices well. So it looked to be a fairly evenhanded report that again you know there's not a great way to spin what I understand the findings to pan all right when we come back we'll touch on Bernie said is more of your calls too late 030930. Is the number. Jacob nine Keisel is here from UB about fifteen minutes left at twelve noon it's up to Meet the Press among their guests today in the sound pretty interesting. Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson right on the corner about twelve minutes from now stay with us much more to come on news radio 930 WB. It's like news radio 937. And it's. Jacob and I hasn't lived here. UB political science department again coming up at twelve noon among the guests on Meet the Press Gary Johnson the libertarian candidate for. President of the United States for a New Mexico governor there there's been a theory out there. I've heard. Impact prominent local libertarian writers even put forth for me that Hillary Clinton wouldn't mind seeing. A lot of a lot of support for Gary Johnson 'cause it ends up helping her would you agree. I think they might be true in the cycle so we've seen. In empirical analyses of the devote feeling effects of days and Ralph Nader for Ross Perot. They really haven't amounted to gain game changer I think that could be different again and in election cycle where we've gone. So far away from what we've known in the past. I think that we might see disaffected trump voters. Finding a Gary Johnson more palatable. And made throw the lever even though they might understand that it's not going to be the decisive vote so if Sanders was a legitimate third party instead of running as Democrat. You would see the same effect on the other side until they think you're going to see and taking mostly votes away from Hillary Clinton gave in buffalo earlier on the air high you've got a question Sanders go ahead. It just following up on what you were say. A lot of forward and try it should mention that date in 2008. But already people follow and be Obama. I would question. That this time. The standard people that much younger ones. At these. Are you see a ability. And org although I knew he would get all curled a ball well the well shall hold the ball well. Well our home. Very true basically parity or something like. Because they saw one body one and it's oh look they're not seeing. Which side of the aisle this city workers are. Or choke anybody but trump calling all literature great. Are where the minor parties and more we get maybe 1% of the overall book the other. Could get a significant. Tried to the ballot. In. I will make one prediction that connection so it what went without a plurality not a majority I'll take your road in Europe they're very trigger. Last on first plurality matter not a majority I think he's actually right in that regard. And it depends also on how you slice and dice the electorate if you look at the eligible electorate I think those numbers are going to be even more stunning in the sense that we're gonna have a lot of folks staying home whereas we had seen turnout on the increase last couple cycle. All right now what about his other points. I think you may you're about that too again in the past we've not really seen much of a spoiler effect for third party candidates this election certainly feels different and that's the best I can do in terms of empirical evidence. In the sense that we've been wrong so many times on what the pastor told about the cycle. And so if any time is going to do it we're gonna see it here among its more than just a little bit further what has been for you a guy who obviously follows this stuff. The biggest surprises here I mean certainly the big story is trump a break it down forming within that what has been the while I didn't see that coming. And yet again it is trumpet and it's been his runaway success time on air so those are all his and six months ago a month ago I said he was sideshow and I think that's what the establishment. Thought as well and so they ignored them and they ignored him at their perilous turns out because. They didn't. Make steps to counter. What was you know clearly chops portrait something had to be wrong in their minds. I'm for them that as Thea trump picture emerging from this and they didn't. Treat him as a serious candidate and they and they did that their apparel teams earlier this year at the state Republican Party convention here in town. Talk show host Laura Ingram commentator at a speech in which she said. That the the pero they ignored or the the issue that they just didn't see coming was not so much trump but the way he has articulated. The. Anti trade sentiment. The idea that that he has really yet yes the Wallace certainly part then but she said that he has really tapped into. A lot of disaffected Democrats disaffected Republicans. Who are really. Upset about free trade and that it's not so much her argument was yes it's trump but you also have to look at the issue that he is touching in ways that no one else has touched. And that the Republican Party she went on to argue needs to concentrate on those issues because there is a huge group of people out there that are opposed to free trade which you which. Yeah actually right at least in part in the free trade is some part of it but also. This undercurrent of of populism that is really then the rise in order not noticed irradiated something that that very few people saw me we cut for a couple news article a while ago that some folks and maybe National Journal or whatnot have been on top of that from from the beginning bit. They were the odd person out. In the sense that nobody really saw this populist resurgence because it's really hard to predict the last time we thought candidates you've been. Approach looking like a Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump was 7080 years ago. And so it then then they were sideshows well and so is difficult to see that they were going to be such a player in this campaign. Lou is is the difference a messenger who can really make a resonate or is the time different is it such that that we've reached the point where people just saying. Enough I think it's a little bit of both this the not terribly satisfactory answer but it has to be you know this is the moment for these. You know kinds of anger on both the extreme right in the extreme left to come to a head where. They art. Not happy with the institutions as they find them they're not happy with the partisan institutions that are not happy with the government institutions. Not happy with congress and machine record low approval ratings of congress and then we see split approval of the president rate basically 5050. But with 50% of the country really liking the person and 50% really not liking the president and so polarization coupled with disaffection with these institutions has really. And conspired to create this environment that we didn't see coming our American Butler your back and clean up last call this evening during this morning I had. Walt. Corporate network media has endorsed from two to about. Three billion dollars count he is the right wing and corporate media endorsed candidate. The media is super. And get you back in race. Part of that. Tell me just very quickly what you mean when you say corporate media that she'd almost be a buzzword. Isn't as an all media owned by a corporation our immediate. I I did not mean to do that I've really at the button to prematurely. We we only have about a minute left here so I guess it's fortuitous. Talk about its common tell me what he just says and what whether you agree I think the widespread perception that and there is some relationship between media ownership and what kinds of things are set up. On the on error on the print pages but to say that it's part of some kind of far it's conspiracy might be too far I guess is where I am I and discuss some bad is guesswork on my company here conspiracy theorists think oh they did that because when it was Wednesday but that's it's not the case goblins but what I did why discuss with him. Is an idea of corporate media. Technically aren't all. I don't know what he was looking for all media is owned by corporations. I mean you know bloggers living in basement sometimes sites beholden to anybody putt I destroyed beyond that only media does answer to somebody and other might have an effect but. And probably not as large as we might think. Do you think and if that were the case lets you Sanders is a counter argument. This man is a independent socialist who's gotten pretty good deal of coverage. If if everybody was in the tank because of the corporate media quote unquote. Explain Sanders. And he really can't in and so we with the narrative that corporate media is picking and choosing winners and losers. He really can't explain offender treatment trump because you know the by far away the money. Early on at least was behind it Jeb Bush. Great stuff glad you're able to come on and thanks for all of us through my pleasure thank you Jacob ninth Keisel is the professor at university of buffalo in their political science department.