Aug 1, 2016|
Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)
Steve Roberts is with us this morning an ABC political analyst at. I wanna get to a few things Steve but first there's new polling out. On the presidential race following the Democratic Convention Hillary Clinton has a bump in a new CBS news poll she is up. 46 to 39%. They're calling it a four point. Bounce for Clinton. Is that expected to should it have been higher. It is expected. It's about what Obama got from this convention not as much as her husband god. But she's less popular than her husband and he is and has all these negative so it's about what people expected. It is interesting that within that postseason. Her negatives went down 5% her positives went up 5%. This is only a snapshot. It's not a prediction but it's good news or improve for the Democrat. And I think that there as the year campaign began you have to say that Hillary Clinton is the favorite not just because of the national poll. But if you look at the polls in the key swing states particularly in the mid western states like Pennsylvania Ohio. Michigan Wisconsin that Donald Trump have to win to have any kind of chance he has to similar lead in most of the polls most instances. If David Donald Trump now embroiled in those flap for the mom and out of those Muslim American soldier who died saving. The lives of his of American soldier comrades a few years ago. Why doesn't trump just let those things die instead of engaging in this abrasive confrontational those family. Lot of Republicans are asking exactly that question why is C so's then can fly to seek. So. And determined to take on the Stanley. And let this is a man who over and over and over again has proven. To be very very vulnerable to criticism and he can't stand and look in the past it has not hurt him these kinds of reactions has not hurt him. But this course supporters but. I think potentially this incident can be important because it plays into that. Well I think is the strongest argument Hillary Clinton had. Which isn't to say to voters really can you imagine Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Not as a reality TV star not a from novelty not as a celebrity. But can you imagine him as president can you imagine him representing the country can you imagine him being in charge of the particular code. Does he really have the temperament to do that and that's a very critical question and this example plays into her argument. That the answer is no so will we don't know yet how it's gonna play output potentially I think it it's gonna be damaging to trial. What should he do I mean is an apology something imminent I would smooth things over right now. You know he's and so deep it's hard to hard to know put. I think he's eaten. If I were advising them I'd say cut your losses now. And and and apologized and honor there's this service so the com family. And their and their dead son and and don't keep this going but he he seems incapable of doing that. He. He is so. Then scanned and so determined to win every argument that looked. The fact is this strategy this approach. Won him the nomination in defiance of every political pundits including made. And so he. Had evidence that say look I know what I'm doing and all the other people who tell me if I'm wrong. Have been wrong before but I I I think it would he's missing. If this is no longer there were Republican primaries to assist. When you get a hundred days before election people start feeling politics and a different way. They start mentioning candidates by a different standard they really start getting serious. About who did they want to be president and he. He might be missing something he might not understand they shift in the in the perspective that at least some voters. Are going to be having over the next three months. Well Steve as you pointed out just a minute ago it doesn't seem no matter what Donald Trump does it doesn't seem to hurt him. In anyway does this reflect on the American voter who supports strong study just can't do anything wrong. Well it's certainly true that there are many people who. Support trumpet and and say I don't really. Care what he says and I don't really listen to the critics I'm for him because he's strong he's tough and he. He speaks his mind and there's just no doubt that there is a core group of strong core group that comes supporters from whom this will have no effect whatsoever. But they're not gonna determine the election that's the core group of Trump's support this is not enough to win this election for him and when I think about. Are the two things one if they sort of the more moderate Republican voters. Particularly those with better education the polls polls show that the less education people have the more likely they are for trumped the more education they had the more likely they are to be against it. Better educated voters who are loyal Republicans. But who cannot stomach content from this example. This one that they think look this shows me conclusively that he doesn't have the temperament to be president the other factor here. It's for the Democrats to use this as mobilization. In the end this election is probably going to be a lot more about mobilization and persuasion. And it's the kind of argument that the Democrats can use and say look. This is this is the man you have to defeat this is good that you might be a standing supporter he might not like Hillary Clinton you might have a lot of doubts about her. But do you really want Donald Trump in the Oval Office. So those are the two things I think are really gonna matter. Right that's ABC political analyst Steve Roberts.